The sell off was always going to happen. With a bubble growing at the rate that the NBA Top Shot bubble was (is?) there was always going to come a time when people decided to flood the marketplace with the moments to try and make some quick cash. But once that happened, the big question that follows is whether or not the Top Shot market crashed or if it was more of a market correction moment for the upstart NFT market.
Now that a few days have passed, I’m going to dig into the numbers and see if the value is still there now as well as what the future outlook holds for the NBA Top Shot world.
Most of us aren’t looking to invest hundreds of dollars into this so let’s take a look at the basic cards first. Taking a look at the marketplace today, the lowest price for the most basic card set runs about $7 per moment.
Given the fact that you can get 3 moments in a pack for at a price point of $9 per pack I’d still call that a decent value even if the value has dropped from what was running about twice as high a week ago. And that’s where the value seems to have lost it’s absolute guarantee.
Recent Top Shot Pack Drops are Looking Shaky
Looking back at the last two rare tier drops, the promise for turning a profit is no longer promised even if it’s undoubtedly more likely than not. First, let’s go back to the second to last rare tier drop to see the impact from moments that have been on the marketplace for an extended amount of time.
In the Rising Stars pack, anyone lucky enough to get one was guaranteed 1 rare tier Rising Stars moment ($110-$1000 with outliers up to $2400) , 1 common Seeing Stars moment ($40-$100 with outliers up to $400), and 5 common base tier moments ($7 each so $35 total, some outliers up to $90) so even with the worst possible moments the pack would be worth a minimum of $185. At a cost of $199 that would be a loss but again, that’s assuming the worst possible outcome and would be unlikely.
It looks even less promising when we take a look at the last rare tier drop. This pack came with 1 rare tier 2021 NBA All-Star Game moment ($100-$250 with outliers at $500/$700/$1800) and 6 common base tier moments ($70 total minimum) so with the absence of a second, middle tier card like the Seeing Stars moment in the previous pack, the All-Star pack was very much a boom or bust option for the people who lucked into one.
With the pack costing $229 and the lowest profit being $170, this certainly could have turned out at least slightly in the negative for more than just a handful of unlucky collectors.
Temporary Market Correction or Long-Term Concern?
The guaranteed gravy train has come to a halt it seems for the moment. But there is still a buzz around Top Shot and the customers haven’t abandoned ship just yet. More than 100,000 people tried to get in line for the 50,000 base packs released and preorders for the same type of pack reached over 325,000 so the customers are still enjoying purchasing and collecting the basic moments.
Add in the fact that some countries still don’t have access yet and I’m still bullish on Top Shot being around in 5 years but much like the trading card market; I see it as a boom or bust on making a profit.
The real test will come when the next rare drop happens for if the high value numbers will continue to hold steady or if it’s going to be a market that only has interest in dabbling with a few dollars here and there.
The question is, when the prices go up will they continue to buy without that safety net of a seemingly guaranteed profit?