The NBA season never really stops.
After the Finals our sights are immediately on the draft prospects and how the lottery is going to play out followed quickly by free agency, summer league, training camps, pre-season, and then before you know it the pumpkins are out and the NBA regular season is getting ready to kick off.
For me, the transition from off-season to next NBA season starts after summer league and with the NBA over/under betting numbers.
At this point the rookies are on the teams they will start the season with, the free agents have figured out where they are going, and other than some final touches these are the teams we will likely be seeing once opening night is here.
I found three bets in particular that I personally plan on classifying as “locks” when I pick every team’s over/under numbers that I think Vegas missed the mark on. Below are those bets (as well as a bonus bet that the big money is coming in on that NBA sharps love) along with why I’m so confident in those teams this year.
Detroit OVER 24.5 wins
The worst team in the East last season, the Detroit Pistons were the lucky winners of the Cade Cunningham sweepstakes in the draft. The presence of one of the most complete draft prospects in years combined with the off-season they had last season getting an actual training camp and some practices in will equate to picking up 5 more wins than they were able to get last season.
Spurs UNDER 28.5 wins
One of the few teams in the league that clearly got worse from last year to this year, the San Antonio Spurs understand the value of a franchise-changing big man coming in from the draft. With a lack of big men in the last few drafts, next year’s draft appears at the moment to be heavy with bigs.
Of the top 5 prospects that are the general consensus heading into their college/professional seasons, 4 of them are big men. With a very young team that is a big man and a superstar away from another core that could contend for years, the Spurs are going to be one of the two bad teams in the West this year.
Clippers UNDER 45.5 wins
With Kawhi Leonard more than likely out for the entire season and a Western conference that is extremely talented from top to right below the bottom in OKC, the Clippers aren’t going to be able to bank very many wins on teams that simply aren’t good.
And even though Paul George helped show the NBA world that he’s much closer to the star from the Pacers than given credit for I just don’t see a way for the Clippers to make it to 45 wins this year.
Bonus Pick: Wizards OVER 32.5 wins
When the over/unders come out, the odds are -110 until the money comes in so hard one way that the sportsbooks have to change the odds to cover themselves. Currently, to place a bet on the Wizards over you’d have to accept the odds of -140.
With no other team even hitting the -130 threshold, the most popular over/under pick from the public that has Vegas sweating is clearly the Wizards over. I also picked them to go over and adding Dinwiddie, KCP, Kuzma, and Harrell more than makes up for losing Westbrook.
So there you have it; my three favorite picks this year along with the pick that currently has the sportsbooks sweating it out.
Be on the lookout for a few more NBA future bets pieces as well as the rest of my over/under for every team in the league coming out soon!