I am not someone who Gambles. In fact, I outright refuse to bet on anything. However, I do want to give where I feel about each team going into the year and the win totals are a great way to do so.
This year the win totals have an almost unprecedented amount of 50 win teams predicted and I just don’t see that happening. As many analysts have pointed out, the parity across the league is at an all time high, and in all likelihood, the standings will end up being very tight down the stretch.
With that being said, let’s take a look at each of the NBA teams’ over/under totals courtesy of Action Network.
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Celtics: 53.5
Under, not hard under but I don’t think there will be that many 50 win teams this year. I do think the Celtics hit 50 wins but they wont be the best team in the East, and definitely not the league as a whole.
Bucks: 52.5
Over, I think the bucks are coming in with something to prove this year. I don’t think it will be much over but it will be over.
Clippers: 52.5
Under but only slightly, because I am being sparse with my 50 win teams. The Clippers are going to load manage a bit so that will drop things down.
Suns: 52.5
Under, this team is just not going to be that good this year, they won a ton of close games and the vibes are TRASH. This team is going to be in the play in, too many selfish players.
Warriors: 51.5
Over, healthy Klay, this team is going to be over but not by very much. I think the Warriors get over the 52 win mark even with the Draymond problems.
Nets: 50.5
Under, I would have set the line at like 47.5, still think the nets will be good but not a 50 win team. Their stars are not durable but they are really good.
76ers: 50.5
Over, Harden and Embiid are going to win regular season games. Maxi is improving I think they are the likely 3rd 50 win team in the East.
Nuggets: 49.5
Yikes, this is almost the perfect line. I am not touching this. The nuggets improve but also play in an improved West. Even with the return of Murray everything hinges completely on Jokic.
Grizzlies: 48.5
Under, the grizzlies greatly overachieved last year, they got significantly worse, don’t have JJJ for the start of the year, and are in line to get smacked from being totally over confident.
Mavericks: 48.5
Over, the mavs didn’t lose Prime Steph Curry and not replace him with anyone, the Mavs are at worst the same level team they were last year and there is an argument they are better, the mavs were a 52 win team last year and all the tanking teams this year should make that number higher.
Heat: 48.5
Over, Should not be a problem for this team to hit this number. I don’t think they get much over 50 wins but I still think the heat are a regular season juggernaut.
Wolves: 48.5
I also won’t touch this, its crazy how good this line is. Gobert really helps in the regular season but the fit with KAT is clunky on offense. Ant could take a huge leap though and I feel good about this team.
Cavs: 47.5
Slight under, I’m afraid this one could be slightly under if Rubio takes forever to return. The Cavs improved a lot but they might not win as many games due to needing lucky health from LeVert, Rubio, Garland and Love.
Hawks: 45.5
Over, I like the team more than Vegas apparently. The Hawks improved and seem to be making strides to really turn it on this year. Don’t be shocked if the hawks have 48+ wins.
Lakers: 45.5
Stay away from this one I think this is about as close to accurate as we can be. The Lakers aren’t a bottom dweller but they also aren’t good.
Raptors: 45.5
Over but slight over. The Raptors are a more complete team than the Bulls and play better together with a better coach than the Nets and Hawks, while someone in that group is going to hit the under I just don’t see it being the raptors.
Pelicans: 44.5
Under but slight under. The west is deep and the South West in specific is going to be really good, with no easy wins this year and changing the offense completely by bringing in Zion, and CJ not playing out of his mind I think this team will be .500. Not Bad but also not good.
Bulls: 42.5
Slight Over, Zach and Nikola are healthy, DeMarr is still going to be good, but probably wont be breaking Wilt records this year. PAW is back, there are a lot more positives than worrying about them losing Lonzo who played less than half of last season anyway.
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Blazers: 39.5
Easy under, the blazers were on a 33 win pace even when healthy last year. Chauncey is totally out of his depth as a coach, Dame is the bright spot this year being healthy but I think he is more likely to be traded than for them to be a top 6 seed.
Knicks: 39.5
Under, no team in the league is worse designed while “Competing” none of the pieces are bad but they just do not fit together at all. I don’t trust Leon Rose to make the trades needed to fit this team together.
Hornets: 36.5
Under, hard under, even if Melo was healthy. I have no idea why the odds makers are this high on the hornets, it doesn’t even make sense.
Wizards: 35.5
Over but only slight over. I still think the Wizards are bad but I also expect improvement from Deni and Rui. Beal is still going to win a few games and KP might win one or 2 on his own.
Kings: 33.5
Over, Kings will be closer to the Pelicans and lakers than the blazers. I think the Kings are more motivated than any western team to just scrape into the playoffs.
Pistons: 29.5
Over but not high over 34 ish. The Pistons are going to benefit from me being lower on the Hornets and Knicks. They win some but not many more games.
Magic: 26.5
Stay away, Paolo and Franz will win some games on their own. It will probably be lower than this but not much.
Jazz: 24.5
Over, the Jazz haven’t traded enough people to hit this under. They could get there but they will.
Pacers: 23.5
Over, Rick Carlisle will not let this team lose less. Turner and Heild are still here and need to go if they want to hit this under.
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Thunder: 23.5
Under, but because they are tanking. SGA is gonna have another freak injury if he wins too many games.
Rockets: 23.5
Over 28 ish wins. The Rockets are going to make sure the win enough games to miss out on a franchise savior, just like they always have since they drafted Yao.
Spurs: 22.5
under, this team will be in the teens of wins. That will be on purpose, they will do whatever they can to get Wemby who plays for Tony Parker’s team in France.
Jordan Ennis
Jordan Ennis lives in West Africa where he is a pastor at an international church, he also co-hosts the Assisted Development Podcast on the HoopSocial Podcasts feed. He can be found at Assisted Development Podcast on Facebook and @HoopSocialDraft on Twitter.